Future Bet Day Two

Welcome back to day two of the Week of High Value Futures. For those of you who missed out on day one, I recommend you go check out my first high value NFL future bet. Now, before I dive into day two’s high value future bet, I just want to quickly recap the purpose behind this article series. We have now entered the fourth quarter of the 2020 NFL season. And with only four games remaining for each team, us bettors now have enough data to make informed decisions on future bets. However, there is also enough time remaining for betting lines on realistic outcomes to have a higher value than you’ll ever be able to get again. Consider this week the “golden hour” of the NFL betting season.

What I am doing is identifying some diamond in the rough future bets being offered for the 2020 NFL season. These are bets that I don’t necessarily think are the most likely outcome. But, they are bets that I think are more likely to occur than their betting lines would assume. These are high-risk, high-reward bets. Therefore, I recommend throwing small wagers on these lines. It has to be an amount you are willing to lose. However, if the bet does hit, the payout could be massive for your bank account.

Most Receiving Yards: Davante Adams

This future bet is one that I feel has a very strong chance to hit, especially given the betting line. On Draftkings Sportsbook, the current odds for Davante Adams to finish the season as the leader in receiving yards are +700. That is only the fourth best odds listed on the sports book for this future. Adams currently has longer odds on this bet than D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Adams also has the same betting line of +700 that Arizona’s DeAndre Hopkins has entering Week 14.

So why should we be putting our stake on Adams to finish as the receiving leader? I mean he only has the fourth best odds. Well, let’s take a look at the current receiving stats entering Week 14. Davante Adams is currently the sixth leading receiver in the NFL with 1029 yards. That is only 90 yards behind the current leader, D.K. Metcalf. Adams is also currently trailing Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson, and Stefon Diggs in this statistic. So why am I confident he can jump from sixth to first in just four weeks?

Why Davante Adams Will Finish as the Leading Receiver

Seeing that Adams is currently in sixth place in receiving yards is not a very encouraging statistic on the surface. But when you really look at how he got there, the encouragement rises. Unlike the other top 10 receiving leaders who all played 12 games so far, Adams has only played 10. Adams missed two and a half games following an injury he sustained versus Detroit in Week 2. Since Adams returned in Week 6 he has shown he may be the best receiver in the NFL. This season, Adams has averaged 102.9 receiving yards per game. That is the highest YPG in the NFL by a decent margin. Metcalf has the second most with 93.3 YPG. So in all likelihood, if Adams had not missed time early in the season, he would be leading this statistic comfortably at this point in the season.

How Davante Adams Will Finish as the Leading Receiver

Not only is Adams hauling in an average of almost 10 more yards than any other receiver, but he’s catching those passes from MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers. And I know that the other top three candidates for this future are also catching passes from MVP candidates in Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes. However, the difference has less to do with having an elite QB, and more to do with which offense that QB runs. As the end of the season comes, and the weather gets cold and wet, offenses are changing. Teams want to run the ball more and control the clock. Unless that team is Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers has played in Green Bay for his whole career. Therefore, Rodgers is seemingly more comfortable playing in a blizzard than he is on a warm, sunny day.

That is good news for his top target Davante Adams, as Rodgers has shown he has very little trust in any other Packers’ skill player. Furthermore, Adams has some favorable matchups to finish the season. He will face off against two awful passing defenses in Detroit and Tennessee, one average passing defense in Carolina, and one good passing defense against Chicago. I believe as the season winds down, and the Packers continue to fight for the NFC’s one-seed, they will lean heavily on the Rodgers-Adams connection. And that approach to end the season will allow Davante Adams to finish the year with the most receiving yards.

Why the Field Won’t Finish as the Leading Receiver

Davante Adams will likely be hauling in a high volume of passes from Rodgers these next four weeks. That is because Green Bay’s best strategy to win football games is to lean on Rodgers’ passing ability. The other receivers currently in the race to capture the receiving title will likely not get that kind of help from their team’s play calls.

D.K. Metcalf

First, I will address the current receiving leader D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf was the single biggest beneficiary of the “let Russ cook” stretch at the beginning of the season. Russell Wilson was playing at an unsustainably high level early this season. And most of that production was headed in Metcalf’s direction. Metcalf had over 90 yards receiving in seven of his first eight games. Since then, he only eclipsed 90 yards once in the last four games. This is partly because defenses are finally figuring out that a slow three-cone drill time does not mean a 230-pound receiver who runs a 4.3 can’t play. It is also because Seattle is starting to focus more on winning games than winning Russ an MVP trophy. Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde‘s running production is steadily increasing. And I expect that, as the cold weather rolls in, this offense will only become more run-centric.

With defenses shading in Metcalf’s direction, I believe that players like Tyler Lockett, David Moore, and the returning Josh Gordon will start to eat up more shares of the passing game. I also believe that the overall passing game in Seattle will diminish as they focus on their power running game more to end the season. Lastly, Seattle’s remaining schedule doesn’t bode well for heavy passing production. They will face one bad defense in Week 14 versus the Jets. But, after that they must face three consecutive top-tier passing defenses in Washington, the Rams, and the 49ers. For all the reasons listed above, I think it seems probable that Adams can out-gain Metcalf through the air by over 90 yards to end the season.

Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill

The biggest obstacle these two will have in trying to capture the receiving title may actually be each other. The Chiefs offense has been nothing short of electric since Patrick Mahomes stepped on the field. But, the thing about the Chiefs offense is they can win just about any way they choose. They simply have too many weapons to spread the ball around to for one guy to end the season as the receiving leader. In any game, Kelce, Hill, Hardman, Watkins, Edwards-Helaire, Bell, or maybe even Andy Reid could lead the team in yards.

I fully expect both of these players to be productive receivers throughout the remainder of the season. However, I don’t think either of them will be able to get enough attention to surpass the production of Davante Adams through the last four weeks. Especially because they have a tougher remaining schedule including good defenses in Miami, New Orleans, and the Chargers.

Claiming the Value

Now I obviously can’t address the specific reasons why Davante Adams will out-produce every receiver to end the season, but I do believe that will be the case. The way that Green Bay will lean on the passing game in the cold weather is unlike any other team outside of Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh has too many receivers getting target share for them to be involved in this race. Davante Adams on the other hand will get a vast majority of targets in Green Bay.

Adams is simply, by far, the most productive receiver, in one of the most productive passing offenses. All the other candidates will not be able to stay at Adams’ receiving pace because of lost touches to other star teammates, increased called running plays, and less favorable matchups. Therefore, tailing the bet of Davante Adams to finish the season as the receiving leader at +700 odds is a no-brainer. This is one of the lowest-risk, high-value future bets I was able to find in the Sportsbook. If you do decide to bet on this line, please bet responsibly. Have fun, and good luck!

Visit BellyUp Fantasy Sports for tons of fantasy sports news, tips, and analysis. And don’t forget to check out the BellyUp Sports homepage for all your general sports news.

Follow the BellyUp Sports Fantasy page on Twitter @BellyUpFantasy.