We’re three weeks into the MLB season, and anyone with fantasy baseball experience knows: this is the time when waivers really get hot. As we start to learn who we can and cannot trust, we’ll all be looking to make waiver adds. Today I wanted to focus on players in the 10 percent and under realm of ownership. I definitely feel that waivers are thinner than usual this season, but this of course is subject to league size and format specifics. Whether you’re reading on our website, finding us on social media, or coming in from Reddit: please feel free to comment wherever you can. I’d love to hear other waiver ideas, and I think we can all benefit from more opinions.

Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres

We all remember Trent Grisham from the pre-2021 hype. A top-75 pick in many 2021 drafts, Grisham seemed poised to build off of a truly fantastic 2020 COVID year. A potential 25-25 guy with an everyday role and a prime position in an above-average lineup. Unfortunately, Grisham didn’t live up to the hype. His tendency to be overly conservative ultimately cost him, even if he was able to turn in extremely low chase rates along the way. The reality is that Grisham does have a lot of power in his compact swing. But sitting on too many pitches, both in and out of the zone, led to frustratingly passive at-bats. Two disappointing seasons later though, I can see some real post-hype value. Even if there is some risk.

What do I like about Trent Grisham right now? First of all, I see a much less passive hitter. Grisham’s 68 percent zone swing rate is by far the highest of his career, and almost 10 percent above his career average. Even his overall swing rate of 46 percent is six points higher than any other season in his career. He’s swinging a lot more, and his chase rate hasn’t taken a massive hit either, still sitting in the 63rd percentile. For most of 2021-2022, Grisham cared more about not swinging at bad pitches than he did about doing damage. In 2022 alone, Grisham’s zone swing percentage was 10 percent lower than league average. I think we can all see why this would be so frustrating to watch. Especially from such a talented hitter.

So what does Grisham look like when he’s locked in on doing damage? So far this season, his average exit velocity sits in the 93rd percentile, with an 83rd percentile max exit velo, and an 87th percentile barrel rate. Yeah, that’s some pretty good stuff. Grisham caught the attention of many leading up to his first few MLB seasons because of his short, compact, yet powerful swing. We know he has high-end pop. We all just wanted to see that swing in action more often. I love the changes that Grisham has implemented so far in 2023, and I think they play to his strengths. Let’s also not forget that he’s still learning, at only 26 years old.

So far this season, Grisham has been hot-and-cold but already has four HRs and a 118 OPS+. Like Grisham, the Padres themselves are also a bit of a wild card. Fernando Tatis will soon return, but the Padres have been pretty cold to start the season. Still though, an everyday player in a lineup with 3 all-stars has some added appeal. Grisham will need to continue to hit bombs to provide value, but the analytics suggest he will. He also could really benefit managers by re-upping his stolen base attempts, which seem to have vanished. But we aren’t looking for perfect players on waivers. We want certain things, and upside is one of them. This former 1st-round pick with a new and improved identity looks the part.

Brent Rooker, OF, Oakland A’s

Sometimes the waiver wire is simply about riding hot hands and hot bats. In most leagues, a back-end waiver claim can be made with very little risk. Simply riding a hot bat oftentimes comes at no real cost. So while it may be difficult to trust a member of a pretty dead Oakland A’s lineup, Brent Rooker is worth some attention. Rooker has been great to start the season, with 4 HRs, 11 RBIs, and a 1.057 OPS. He’s functioned as the power bat on an otherwise powerless Oakland A’s lineup, but the 28-year-old has stepped up thus far in his new gig. Rooker, a former 1st rounder, is now seeing his first everyday opportunity in his fourth partial MLB season.

The analytics look tremendous, even if the track record isn’t quite there to back it up. Through 11 games, Rooker’s power profile looks a bit like the aforementioned Trent Grisham’s. He currently sits in the 93rd percentile for average exit velo, 77th percentile for max exit velo, and 94th percentile for barrel rate. It’s still extremely early of course, but it’s encouraging to see that his hot start hasn’t been of the lucky variety. Rooker has shown great plate discipline and managed to make hard, quality contact so far. Unfortunately, in this case, we don’t have any baseline to compare his success to. He’s bounced around in recent seasons, never with an everyday role. Is his early success a result of real adjustments and improvements? We have no way of knowing.

But Rooker has been an asset in all league types thus far, particularly in standard points leagues where he averages 3.5 points per game. Can he continue this success? While the track record doesn’t offer much clarity, I would point to his minor league numbers as at least offering some hope. Rooker tallied 102 HRs in 402 minor league games. Add to that his .543 minor-league slugging percentage, and we at least have something to work with. The power has a chance to be real. Either way though, this is a case where riding the hot bat is worth it. Rooker has more production than you’ll find around him on waivers. Until he stops hitting the ball hard, barreling amongst the best in the league, and showing real plate discipline… there’s no reason not to roll with him.

EDIT: As of writing this, Brent Rooker has been removed from his game against the Chicago Cubs with hamstring tightness. Luckily, this is being called a precautionary move. Still worth monitoring throughout the next 24 hours.

Wade Miley, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

So, I’ll start by saying that starting pitching on waivers feels unusually thin this season. I know this may be (?) isn’t the case for all league formats. But for deeper leagues, points leagues, certain innings-requirement leagues, etc… It’s been tough. You want to get as many useful starts as possible, but outside of whatever you have on the roster, there isn’t much available. I think that some hitter-friendly rule changes, while not earth-shattering, have led to a thinning-out of quality waiver options. But if you want some decent quality without excess risk, look no further than old (fairly) reliable: Wade Miley.

Miley’s made a very long career off of low-velocity, strike-zone-filling, finesse-type stuff. And this season appears to be no exception. The same 3-4 pitches make up the bulk of Miley’s arsenal usage. And while none of it appears particularly spectacular, he’s getting the job done. By mitigating hard contact, he’s been able to pump out two very high-quality outings already. Through 18 innings, Miley has a 1.50 ERA and sub-1 WHIP, despite a slate of fairly difficult matchups to start the season. Strikeouts will never be Miley’s forte. But wins are always a strong possibility, and even on Miley’s worst nights he generally avoids blow-ups. Mitigating a lot of the risk for managers.

But one thing that needs some attention here is the Brewers’ defense. The Brewers have been one of the best defensive teams in baseball thus far in 2023. They’re second overall in defensive efficiency and defensive runs saved. Clearly giving their pitchers a massive boost right now. A finesse starter like Miley certainly stands to benefit from this. While the shift ban can hurt a pitcher of Miley’s style, the Brewers’ high-end defense helps make up the difference.

Wade Miley will not be your solution to rotation issues. But he is one of the few options on waivers right now that can give you quality outings with limited risk. The highs may not be super high, but the lows shouldn’t be very low either. Miley can regularly be above-average, even if we don’t realize it. He’s currently lined up to face the Red Sox at home over the weekend, a matchup we can’t complain about. If Miley is available I highest suggest adding him, at least until the wheels fall off. Milwaukee has been decimated by pitching injuries and he’ll have a shot at a full season’s worth of work. There’s a real chance here to find some quality starts in a pretty dry waiver wire pitching pool.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as the MLB season heats up. I’ll have more waiver wire content and early-season analysis coming. But in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at waiver wire options after the first week of games. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!