Thursday, May 02, 2024

Fantasy Baseball, Featured

Workin’ The Wire: Key Waiver Pickups After One Week of Games

Just over a full week of the 2023 MLB season is behind us. While we may only have a minuscule sample size from which we can make roster decisions, it’s never too early to at least consider making moves. Waiver pickups will begin flowing in all leagues. Whether it’s streaming starting pitchers or churning our less-trusted bats for hot young prospects. It’s important to be proactive in making moves, and I hope to be able to help. Today I wanted to highlight some of my favorite current waiver wire options. The focus here will be on players owned in less than 25 percent of leagues. I’ll make sure to include some options for deeper leagues as well. Feel free to comment and let me know your own ideas/options on the wire!

Logan O’Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels (23% rostered)

While I haven’t been writing about fantasy baseball for too long, I’ve already written about Logan O’Hoppe once before. And I’m pretty sure this won’t be the last time either. O’Hoppe became one of my favorite dynasty pieces after seeing him in person in early 2022 at the AA level. His tools are very obvious and apparent. From my last piece on O’Hoppe: “But this year in AA he became a top prospect in baseball with his .283/.416/.544 slash line, .961 OPS, 26 home runs, and nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio. His approach, swing, and even presence in the box all felt major-league. He makes very hard contact when he connects and his fast hands lead a very smooth swing, allowing him to mash pitches inside and in the upper third of the zone”.

So what have we seen from O’Hoppe through one week of major league ball? A lot of the good stuff. Through his first week he slashed .250/.304/.600 with a 146 OPS+, 2 HRs, and 8 RBI through 6 games. He continues to look the part at the plate, supplementing it with solid defense as well. And while statcast numbers this soon don’t mean much, his early 79th percentile max exit velocity is a fun number to see from a true rookie who hasn’t even cracked 200 lbs yet. O’Hoppe never quite got the attention I expected from a top-100 prospect with an opening-day starting job. Especially a pure hitter at such a thin position. But he’s getting some attention now, and if he’s available on your waiver wire, it won’t be for long

The talent is there, and Logan O’Hoppe has done nothing but prove it through the first week of games. Yes, the sample size is incredibly small. But if you’re not liking your catching options, there is no better pickup you can make right now. Max Stassi is set to return from the IL in less than 2 weeks. But there is no reason for the Angels to mess with O’Hoppe and his current rhythm. Expect O’Hoppe to continue producing at a high level in a favorable lineup, with great matchups coming his way. And one more thing to watch: if he can rise up that Angels batting order, he’ll have even more added value.

MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals (17% rostered)

I have no idea why MacKenzie Gore isn’t being held in a higher regard among fantasy baseball managers. I think we as a collective tend to get overly excited about top prospects, only to completely forget about them when they don’t pop off right away. Gore, a former 3rd overall pick and top-10 MLB prospect, is only 24 years old and in his second full season (first as a full-time rotation member). Gore’s debut season in 2022 wasn’t great but certainly wasn’t bad either. His 4.50 ERA through 70 innings didn’t really move the needle in either direction. But he did strike out 72 in that time and displayed a pitch mix with tons to build off of.

Thus far in 2023, Gore has faced two difficult matchups with the Rockies at Coors and the Braves at home. He’s 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and a 9.5 SO/9. The 1.24 WHIP still needs to come down a bit, but again, these were two very difficult matchups. On top of that, Gore continues to show why his tools made him a top-10 MLB prospect. His fastball-curveball combo continues to be a deadly vertical 1-2 punch. His 95 mph fastball -with a high spin rate and great active spin- and 93rd percentile extension continue to play at a high level, especially coming from a lefty.

What we need to see from Gore now is an increase in changeup usage. This pitch has to come along in order to round out Gore’s arsenal. The slider also needs to round into form. It’s an 89mph offering but still doesn’t have a ton of feel at this point. Gore has been rolling to start the season and his talent/pedigree speak for itself. Coming up, he’ll have matchups on the road against the Angels and at home against the Orioles. Neither is an awesome matchup but neither is a huge concern, either. I love Gore as a streaming option. But I think it may be time to scoop him up for the long term if you have room. The upside is a pitcher who can hold down an SP spot for a whole season, and grow into an all-star caliber player.

Drey Jameson, RP/SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (3% rostered)

Drey Jameson has put together one of the more interesting bodies of work from any pitcher so far this season. Through 3 appearances of long relief Jameson has; 2 wins, 1 save, and a 2.16 ERA after 8.1 innings. What’s most interesting here is the quality of opponents that Jameson has succeeded against. He’s faced the Dodgers on the road, the Padres on the road, and the Dodgers again, this time at home. He’s already given up 2 home runs but has a ridiculous 43 percent whiff rate. All while showing an increase in fastball velocity up to 97mph.

I’ve long been a fan of both Jameson and the Diamondback’s other young option for their final rotation spot, Ryne Nelson. From my last piece on Jameson: “Jameson’s best trait is his explosive arm. While he isn’t necessarily a high-spin rate guy, his fastball averages 96 mph and has some solid rise, making it a strong offering. Certainly a fastball that should play well in the upper third of the zone”. I also talked about how Jameson had added a highly effective sinker as his 5th pitch. Thus far his sinker has a 31 percent usage rate and is showing a fantastic multi-planar movement profile. A very positive development.

So how should we proceed with Jameson? Obviously things aren’t too clear, as most fantasy managers don’t save room for long relief pitchers. But the reason I bring up Jameson is because of his possible imminent role change. Between Madison Bumgarner’s fatigue issue, Ryne Nelson’s unsettled status as a starter, and the weak Diamondbacks rotation in general, Jameson should get his shot. It’s unclear when this may be. But Jameson appears ready. If and when he does begin starting games, there is instant value as a streaming option. But the long-term potential for the former first-rounder also remains high. And his stuff is really rounding into form. Keep Jameson pinned to the top of your watch lists. And until he gets a rotation spot he has intriguing value as a long reliever with good ratios, strikeout potential, and maybe an occasional win or save.

*Update*: Just prior to publishing, it appears that Zach Davies has sustained an injury that will send him to the IL. Drey Jameson appears poised to take Davies’ rotation spot, at least for now. He’s definitely worth a shot for shallow league streaming or worth a roster spot in deeper leagues. His first matchup would likely be Miami.

Francisco Alvarez, C/DH, New York Mets (9% rostered)

Francisco Alvarez is another case of a player who holds post-hype level regard, despite barely having played in the majors. At 21 years of age, Alvarez enters 2023 as a top-5 MLB prospect with an abundance of untapped and untested talent. He holds a career .913 OPS through 3 minor league seasons, with 60 home runs in just over 250 games played. Alvarez is a pure hitter, with 70-grade power that should translate at the highest level. He also has a fantastic feel for the strike zone and a propensity to draw walks, making him a well-rounded threat at the plate.

Omar Narvaez took the Mets’ starting catcher spot out of spring training. But he’ll be sidelined for over two months, making room for Alvarez alongside Tomas Nido as the only real catching options on the roster. Alvarez is expected to play regularly during Narvaez’s absence, with a chance to lock down a starting job. While he’s primarily a catcher, his elite-upside bat makes him a lock for some DH starts as well. In no world would a prospect of this caliber be called up to spend time on the bench. Alvarez was only given a handful of at-bats last season, but this time he’ll be afforded the opportunity to settle in with regular chances.

So why is Alvarez worthy of rostering? It all comes down to the elite upside that he brings to the table. It’s as simple as that. There isn’t much 70-grade power with all-star upside that you can find on waivers. He’ll be the highest-ranked prospect to debut this season (depending on which scouting service you prefer), up there with Jordan Walker and Anthony Volpe. Alvarez has the power, feel, and approach to make major waves from the moment he steps in. This is the kind of upside worth taking a swing on because the highest-range outcomes feature an all-star caliber bat. With such a low rostering percentage, he’ll be available in most leagues ahead of his first week as a 2023 major leaguer. Take this chance while you still can. At the very least, the at-bats will be a ton of fun to watch.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as the MLB season gets underway. I’ll have more waiver-wire content and early-season analysis coming. But in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at streaming options for the first weekend of games, for more exciting waiver wire pitching names. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!