Wow. I need to take a breath. The NFL is so back. What an opening weekend. I mean, that was awesome. Opening NFL weekend is the greatest thing in the world since the invention of the original Four Loko. Personally, my favorite part is everyone seeing their picks from week 1 at the end of the season. Everyone has bad picks here and there, but week 1 picks without seeing any previous games are more likely than not, going to be your worst ones.

Another great part is that every fan across the globe has hope and no one is out of it. Even after the drama-filled offseason the Texans had, they won week 1 and gave their fans something to cheer about. How about the Lions too?! They had a spread of +8.5 and somehow covered because of that two-point conversion at the end.

NFL Bad Beat of the Week

Anyone betting SF -8 to -9.5

The Lions trailed the 49ers 31-10 at the half, only to outscore San Fran 24-10 in the 2nd half (including TWO 2-point conversions)

Cardiac cover for some, bad beat for most.

Was there a worse beat?pic.twitter.com/a0qs3CpZeo

— Covers (@Covers) September 14, 2021

There were great games all around but most importantly my fantasy team won. Do you want to hear about my whole fantasy roster and why it is better than yours? Oh, you don’t care at all and I should probably never bring it up again? Okay makes sense, sounds good. 

NFL Week 1 Picks Recap, Room for Improvement

Okay, just a quick recap on my NFL week 1 gambling picks. All the NFL Lines I get are on Bovada.com. Last week my picks were the following:

Broncos -3

Panthers -4

Titans and Cardinals Over 52

Patriots -3

Browns +6

The Losers

I went 3-2 on my picks and the two losses were absolute heartbreakers. First, the Titans and Cardinals over 52. I mean, come on. The score was 38-13 after the 3rd Quarter. I needed a point to push and thought someone would put me over the edge, but in the end, I endured a bad beat. None of the blame goes towards the Cardinals though. Kyler Murray and Co. looked unbelievable. Kyler is a cheat code he really is just turning into one of the most exciting football players to watch. 

Can’t catch Kyler Murray 😅

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/0Xa4LXndSS

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 12, 2021

He is going to win an MVP someday and he looks poised to take the Cardinals to the playoffs. Also, shout out to Chandler Jones for starting off the year as the front runner for DPOY getting 5 sacks in week 1. But the Titans, what the hell. Ryan Tannehill the last two years ate in garbage time. He was the king of it! Yet he cannot get me one lousy point in the 4th quarter? Shame on the Titans.

Now to something a little more emotional. My New England Patriots. Mac Jones, you looked great, kid, and keep your head up. He made all the right throws and made me very excited for this season. I really think the Patriots will still make the playoffs and that Bill found his guy for the future. Now the hard part. Damien Harris. He had a great game he is currently top 5 in the league in rush yards and did very well up until his costly mistake in the 4th quarter Sunday. He will learn from it and move forward stronger than before.

Losing on -3 was a tough pill to swallow. I am going to stay away from the Pats until they win because I personally am very superstitious and I do not want my picks to indirectly hinder their performance. Onto the Jets. 

The Winners

The two-point conversion at the end of the game was so clutch for the spread. Finally, the loveable Browns. They were my only underdog pick last weekend and they covered. Frankly, they should have won the game but when you play Patrick Mahomes covering is good! Last week the underdogs went 11-4 ATS meaning that I found two of the favorites who covered in Broncos and Panthers. Not too shabby if you ask me. Okay, we are done with the recap time to get ready for week 2 picks and get that dough! 

Buffalo @ Dolphins: Pick Bills -3.5

I love the Bills in this spot. Coming off of a loss to the Steelers, a game they had control of until the 4th quarter, I think the Bills come out firing. Josh Allen had a mediocre game last week and I think he is coming for blood this week versus the Dolphins. Last season the Bills beat the Dolphins both times. Once with a 3 point win in Miami and a 30 point win in Buffalo.

Josh Allen is a beast. Don’t let one poor game week 1 tell you otherwise. I’m also not entirely convinced that Tua has what it takes yet and thought he got bailed out last week after that horrendous pick he had in the 4th Quarter. Bills need a win in this spot and I think they come out showing everyone that they are still the class of the AFC with the Chiefs. No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! I will take a side of Buffalo -3.5 please and thank you!

Saints @ Panthers: Pick Panthers +3.5

The only team from last week’s picks that made it again this week. Why do I like the Panthers versus the Saints? The Saints bullied the Packers and they made Aaron Rodgers look like a scrub. I just think this week in a divisional game I like the Panthers at home.

CMC was great last week, totaling close to 200 scrimmage yards and Sam Darnold looked comfortable behind a pocket for the first time since his college days. Jameis and the Saints’ offense is a threat for sure, but I think the Panthers will be able to battle the whole game and I really think this will be a grind. I LOVE getting the Panthers at +3.5 (I got them at +4 earlier in the week too). I think that this will be a field goal game. Division games are close, so I will gladly take the Panthers at +3.5. 

Falcons @ Buccaneers: Pick Over 52

This is maybe my favorite pick of the week. I love overs so much. Nothing is better than tuning into RedZone on a Sunday afternoon and seeing points galore. The Bucs’ offense is stacked. Brady, and weapons like Godwin, Gronk, Evans, and AB! How on earth can you stop them? The Cowboys couldn’t as they let up 31 last week to the defending champs.

Now the Falcons. I feel genuinely bad for Matt Ryan. He deserves to be able to leave Atlanta similarly to how Stafford left Detroit. They are in shambles and let up 32 last week to the freakin Eagles. I do feel that the Falcons will score more this week and get to around 20-24 points. The final score for this I see as a 35-21 game in favor of the Bucs. I will take the over 52 in this game. The Bucs’ offense is too good and the Falcons’ defense is very bad. Essentially, this is just betting on the Falcons to not be as bad as last week offensively.

49ers @ Eagles: Pick 49ers -3

The 49ers had a scare last week versus the Lions. The game was pretty much handled into the 4th Quarter and then the Lions’ backdoor covered +8.5. It was an amazing game. As I wrote above, the Eagles beat the Falcons and their offense looked electric. That being said, I think the 49ers will be able to contain Jalen Hurts a lot better than Atlanta did.

The 49ers have such an athletic defense with Bosa and Warner leading the way, and the offense under Jimmy G looked pretty effective if you ask me. The offense has great players too like Kittle and Deebo Samuel I believe will both have great games on Sunday. Add a great offensive line and I really do not see how the Eagles stop them.

I firmly believe the Eagles are coming off of such a high as well and it would be typical Philly to just lose and have the fans in shambles again. Feed me 49ers -3 I think they are going to prove a point and not blow a cover like last time in the 4th Quarter.

Cowboys @ Chargers: Pick Cowboys +3.5

I hate the Cowboys so much. I really just dislike them a lot. It honestly pains me to take them here. But sadly I think they are going to be decent this year. Dak is unbelievable. He is such a likable guy but I really wish the Cowboys did not re-sign him because he is so much fun to watch and a great comeback story. Just sucks it’s the Cowboys. They have a great offense too and came out versus the Bucs and gave them a battle as they not only covered but almost won the game! Unfortunately, they were going up against Tom Brady and when he gets in that groove you just can’t stop him. If there is such a thing as a moral victory, then that was one for sure.

The Chargers have their guy in Herbert. He is so talented and makes everyone on the offense better with just his presence. If you did not watch football at all and turned on their game on Sunday I bet you would say he looks like a ten year vet. They beat Washington last week traveling across the country and it was a great win for them. My issue is the +3.5 again. I think they will win a close game, personally. The Cowboys can put up points and stay in the game, they just may not finish the job and get the W. But to only lose by 3 points… I think the Cowboys can do that. Love what the Chargers are doing and think they are going to make a push for one of the AFC Wild Card spots (sorry not division, no one is beating the Chiefs for now). My heart says fade the Cowboys, but my head says they are going to be good this year. I am on the Cowboys +3.5.

Final NFL Picks

Bills -3.5

Panthers +3.5

Bucs/Falcons Over 52

49ers -3

Cowboys +3.5

For more content regarding gambling and fantasy insights in general follow me on Twitter! For more sports and fantasy content follow Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports or check out the Belly Up Fantasy Sports site!

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