Friday, May 17, 2024

Fantasy Football

Ceilings and Floors: New England Patriots

This is the third of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We will continue in the AFC East, with the New England Patriots. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Miami Dolphins (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)

Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback

QB1: Jarrett Stidham

CEILING: Bill Belichick really is the best coach alive, and Stidham tears the league a new one, passing for 3,500 yards and 30 TDs. Then, he leads the Patriots to the Super Bowl.

FLOOR: That’s probably not happening. Stidham has growing pains, falls flat on his face, and we get more Brian Hoyer, which is not only realistic, but depressing.

PREDICTION: I foresee an iffy year approaching for Stidham. His weapons aren’t special, He hasn’t done anything at all in the league, and 20 TDs and 2,500 yards seem like a safe bet.

QB2: Brian Hoyer

CEILING: Hoyer trains with Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason, and beats out Stidham in camp. He throws for 25 TDs and 3,000 yards, making him a viable backup QB in fantasy.

FLOOR: He’s Brian Hoyer, you don’t have to use your imagination.

PREDICTION: Hoyer is worthy of being picked only if you are starting Stidham as your QB1, which I hope isn’t a real strategy anybody is considering. He isn’t worth your time unless he wins the job or Stidham is injured, and even then, you aren’t winning much with him.

QB3: Brian Lewerke

CEILING: Convincing you a high is possible isn’t something I feel capable of doing.

FLOOR: He is currently listed behind Hoyer, we know what his low looks like.

PREDICTION: He spills his Gatorade on Robert Kraft, and becomes a Jeopardy trivia question. Answer: This QB was banned from the Patriots facility while still employed by them. Who is Brian Lewerke, Alex?

Ceilings and Floors: Running Back

RB1: Sony Michel

CEILING: Michel breaks out, realizing the potential everyone saw in him, and tops 1,100 yards, adding 10 TDs.

FLOOR: Michel has peaked already, and you are looking at another moderate 900 yard, 7 TD season.

PREDICTION: Michel has actually been average so far in his career, his floor isn’t all that low. But his ceiling looks to be capped, and his situation didn’t exactly improve this offseason. Useful as RB depth, but not a surefire starting option.

RB2: James White

CEILING: I think we saw the ceiling in 2018 when he had 12 total TDs and nearly 1,200 all-purpose yards. However, I think his current ceiling is more along the lines of 10 TDs and 1,000 all-purpose yards.

FLOOR: He posts 700 all-purpose yards along with 3 TDs, essentially ceding more time to Michel.

PREDICTION: White in PPR format has some relevance, but I don’t expect Stidham to help him produce a career year. 5 to 6 TDs, 800 all-purpose yards seem to be reasonable.

RB3: Rex Burkhead

CEILING: Sexy Rexy has two huge games, where he pads his stats enough to make him streaming relevant. Injuries to the guys ahead of him are necessary for this.

FLOOR: He is 30, he plays like it, and never really sees any action.

PREDICTION: He is 30. New England might be bad offensively. Just say no.

RB4: Damien Harris, RB5: Brandon Bolden, RB6: J.J. Taylor

CEILING: Harris and Taylor are still relative unknowns, and Bolden is 30. Not a good chance any of these guys see meaningful playing time this year, but in theory it is possible one of them becomes relevant due to injury.

FLOOR: Nobody ahead of them is hurt, these three contribute solely on special teams.

PREDICTION: Harris and Taylor are young, and Bolden knows the offense. All three make the team, but do not contribute in 2020.

Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver

Ceilings and Floors
WR1: Julian Edelman

CEILING: 1.200 yards, 8 TDs, and another 100-plus catch year for Jules, who stays consistent and produces for Stidham, who will need consistency if he wants anything resembling a good season.

FLOOR: Edelman falls off without Tom Brady, Stidham has accuracy issues, and we see the beginning of the end of a truly solid career. 600 yards, 3 TDs.

PREDICTION: Edelman seems a lock for 800 yards and 6 TDs. Stidham will need him, and he remains a viable option as a flex contributor.

WR2: N’Keal Harry

CEILING: N’Keal Harry breaks out, playing up to his pre-draft hype, catching 8 TDs with 1,100 receiving yards, and rewards fantasy owners who took a chance on him handsomely.

FLOOR: Harry isn’t really good, last year wasn’t a fluke, and he winds up moving down the depth chart.

PREDICTION: Both are so possible, but I saw the talent in Harry last year. I do expect growth to come. I just don’t know if Stidham is capable of nurturing that growth. It’s a high-risk, high-reward scenario.

WR3: Jakobi Meyers

CEILING: He looks like the 2019 preseason guy we saw, has 6 TDs, along with 700 yards. He begins garnering buzz for the 2021 campaign.

FLOOR: 0 TD, 359 yards. That was last year, and possibly the norm.

PREDICTION: I am not expecting much, you shouldn’t either.

WR4: Mohamed Sanu

CEILING: The 30-year-old is finally comfortable in the Pats offense, and he produces 6 TDs along with 800 yards receiving, jumping up the depth chart as the season progresses.

FLOOR: New England is bad, and Sanu isn’t young, so he is buried behind the youth as New England embraces a full-scale rebuild.

PREDICTION: Sanu may have lost it last year, and I suspect that his fantasy-relevant seasons are behind him.

WR5: Marqise Lee

CEILING: 4 TDs, 700 yards, streaming option and feel-good story.

FLOOR: He is done, he was done last year, and everyone but New England knew it.

PREDICTION: He doesn’t really play.

WR6: Damiere Byrd, WR7: Matt Slater, WR8: Gunner Olszweski, WR9: Jeff Thomas

CEILING: Slater likely makes the team due to his special teams prowess, and perhaps one of the other three makes the team as a depth piece only.

FLOOR: Belichick has all four knitting hoodies in the bowels of Gillette Stadium.

PREDICTION: Tom Brady Is Overrated hoodies go up for sale August 18th, Pre-Order Now!

Ceilings and Floor: Tight End

Ceilings and Floors
TE1: Matt LaCosse

CEILING: 3 TDs and 400 yards. He eventually loses his starting gig to one of the rookies during the season.

FLOOR: Loses his starting gig after the first practice.

PREDICTION: He isn’t gonna start long.

TE2: Ryan Izzo

CEILING: See above.

FLOOR: He isn’t actually going to play on offense.

PREDICTION: Avoid avoid avoid.

TE3: Devin Asiasi

CEILING: Asiasi begins the year as TE1, has a serviceable 5 TD, 600-yard season, and gains a lot of hype about his potential moving forward.

FLOOR: Dalton Keene passes him on the roster. Asiasi falls to TE2 in a subpar offense.

PREDICTION: He is going to play, but because Stidham is such an unknown, his output remains cloudy. It is doubtful he is fantasy-viable year one.

TE4: Dalton Keene

CEILING: Outright wins TE1 in New England, and shocks the fantasy world scoring 7 TDs, along with 700 yards.

FLOOR: Never fulfills the sleeper potential, and begins chartering cruises for Pats fans to party with him

PREDICTION: Just wanted to point out, quite a few people believe Keene is the TE to own in the future for New England. Irrelevant this year, but in dynasty, worth a flier. Also, what would tickets for that cruise cost?

Enjoy this article? Follow me on Twitter to get updates when new content is released @realryanhicks, including the rest of my Ceilings and Floors. Up next is the New York Jets. Also check out what else Belly Up Fantasy is cooking up, and follow  @BellyUpFantasy for all your Fantasy Sports needs.