Thursday, May 16, 2024

Fantasy Football

Ceilings and Floors: San Francisco 49ers

This is the 31st of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We continue with the NFC West and the San Francisco 49ers. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Los Angeles Rams. (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)

Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback

QB1: Jimmy Garoppolo

CEILING: In 42 career games, Garoppolo has 44 TDs, 21 INTs, 6,946 yards, and a 67.5 career completion percentage. His defense is awesome, the run game is potent, and Garoppolo should have plenty of familiarity with the offense. 31 TDs, 4500 yards.

FLOOR: Jimmy G was the weakness in San Francisco’s offense in 2019, even though he is not bad. More than any other QB, I am using my eye test. I do not see it. He does not suck. He is above-average. Think Flacco, Eli, Bradford without the injuries, Dalton. He is good enough to win a Super Bowl- if the rest of his team is elite. Or maybe not, see 2019. He is not the problem, nor is he the solution. 22 TDs, 3.700 yards, and an adult video called Jimmy Jamming.

PREDICTION: Garoppolo is just good enough to make you wonder. Just good enough to make Shanahan. Lynch, and 49er fans think he might be the answer. 25 TDs, 4,200 yards. His low ADP makes him valuable in redraft as your superflex/QB2.

QB2: Nick Mullens, QB3: C.J. Beathard

CEILING: I won’t even go here. Their ceiling is QB2. If they start, 49er fans wonder how the heck anyone still has a job in San Francisco,

FLOOR: 2018. Please don’t subject football fans to any more of this. There is only so much a fan base will tolerate.

PREDICTION: San Fran has a QB depth problem.

Ceilings and Floors: Running Back

Ceilings and Floors
RB1: Raheem Mostert

CEILING: Career 6 yards per carry. The magical 2019 playoff run. Mostert is poised to emerge as the face of this backfield. 12 TDs, 1,300 yards.

FLOOR: Mostert is entering his age 28 season. Five teams in five years. 41 combined touches in his first four years. The Kool-Aid man could rush for 800 yards in this setup. Mostert flashed but can’t stay consistent and falls to RB3 with 3 TDs and 400 yards.

PREDICTION: Mostert becomes the main guy in San Fran, holding significant value in redraft leagues. 1,100 total yards, 8 TDs.

RB2: Tevin Coleman

CEILING: 36 total TDs and 4,074 total yards in five seasons without ever being the “featured back”. Coleman secures the most touches in this crowded backfield and erupts for 11 TDs along with 1,200 total yards.

FLOOR: Coleman is relegated to RB3. He averaged 4 yards per carry in 2019, and his lower usage translates to 3 TDs, 600 total yards.

PREDICTION: Coleman will have to fight McKinnon for touches spelling Mostert. His peripheral numbers are not special. I am selling for anything in 2020. 4 TDs, 700 yards.

RB3: Jerick McKinnon

CEILING: McKinnon fully recovers, justifying the seemingly silly contract he signed, and wins the primary back gig. 8 TDs, 1,100 total yards.

FLOOR: He hasn’t played since 2017. That’s not a good start. He records 1 TD along with 300 yards as an offensive afterthought.

PREDICTION: McKinnon outperforms Coleman if healthy. 4 TDs, 800 yards. He has two big games.

RB4: Jeff Wilson, RB5: JaMycal Hasty, RB6: Salvon Ahmed

CEILING: 7 touches, 0 TDs, 150 yards for all three in 2020. Honestly I feel ridiculous saying any offensive stats.

FLOOR: They never play. And San Francisco is better because of it. At least for 2020.

PREDICTION: The rookies offer minimal dynasty stash potential. But let’s not get Hasty, I expect nothing in 2020 from any of them on offense.

Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver

Ceilings and Floors
WR1: Deebo Samuel

CEILING: 10 TDs, 1,200 total yards, and continued ascension for Samuel, whose utility as a playmaker opens up San Fran’s offense. This guy can ball. Another year in this system should prove key as this young, explosive player continues his ascension as a legitimate WR1 for the 49ers.

FLOOR: Samuel doesn’t show significant improvement, defenses key on stopping him, and he scores 4 TDs along with 700 total yards.

PREDICTION: Samuel is gonna find more touches, and I don’t expect regression. Sign me up for 8 TDs and 1,100 total yards for this all-purpose weapon who averaged 13.5 yards per touch while being a ground-air threat.

WR2: Brandon Aiyuk

CEILING: Aiyuk delivers on the hype many see, scoring 9 TDs in addition to 1,100 total yards. his 16.9 yards per touch average in college is tantalizing, and Samuel is more of a weapon than a traditional WR1, and Aiyuk becomes WR1B.

FLOOR: Aiyuk struggles against this competition while the run game remains a focal point, tallying 3 TDs along with 500 yards.

PREDICTION: Aiyuk has an opportunity to seize touches here, Samuel keeps the defenses on their toes. I like AIyuk for 6 TDs and 900 yards.

WR3: Kendrick Bourne

CEILING: Bourne destroys opposing teams third defensive back option, continues to progress, and scores 7 TDs to go with 600 yards rushing. He scored on one of every six touches in 2020.

FLOOR: Bourne is passed by the depth behind him, and only scores 2 TDs to go with 300 yards.

PREDICTION: I am high on Bourne, but 2020 might not be the year for him. I like 4 TDs and 400 yards, but I really like him in dynasty as a stash. He impressed me in 2019, and I think he can contribute moving forward, especially if injuries open opportunities 5 TDs, 400 yards.

WR4: Jalen Hurd, WR5: Trent Taylor, WR6: Jauan Jennings, WR7: Dante Pettis, WR8: Travis Benjamin, WR9: Richie James, WR10: Chris Finke

CEILING: Well, this is an interesting bunch. Not in fantasy though. At best, whoever wins WR4 is a streaming option.

FLOOR: At worst, Travis Benjamin wins WR4. The young guys follow Jimmy G’s advice and get facials, and San Fran looks pretty in 2020. Speaking in visual terms only.

PREDICTION: These guys should not be drafted. Or traded for. Or thought about, or heard, or Hurd, or Benjamin. yeesh. As far as fantasy goes, they are not good. Some will be cut.

Ceilings and Floors: Tight End

Ceilings and Floors
TE1: George Kittle

CEILING: Two elite years that include 2,486 yards and 10 TDs with a career 13.6 yards per touch average. Kittle is a stud. 9 TDs, 1,500 yards.

FLOOR: Kittle has an aversion to the end zone, and winds up with 5 TDs along with 1,100 yards.

PREDICTION: Draft this guy, but not too early. I believe his ceiling is lower than other elite TEs. But his floor is the highest. He produces, albeit his TD numbers leave a bit to be desired. I see 8 TDs and 1,300 yards coming his way. It does not get safer than this at TE.

TE2: Ross Dwelley

CEILING: 17 catches, 105 yards, 2 TDs. Those are his two year career numbers. His yards per touch are not good. His chances of usurping Kittle, even worse. I will take his career numbers as the ceiling.

FLOOR: 7 catches, 5 yards, 0 TDs. TE3.

PREDICTION: TE3, negligible fantasy stats, Ross is Dwellying in the basement.

TE3: Charlie Woerner

CEILING: Woerner becomes TE2, but struggles to get touches. 3 TDs, 500 yards.

FLOOR: Four-year college numbers of 34 total touches for 376 yards and 1 TD. Why was he drafted again? Ross the basement-dwelling Dwelley keeps TE2.

PREDICTION: Woerner needs time to see if he can perform in any capacity in the NFL. We will know nothing in 2020. I hope the 49ers draft someone with the same last name in 2021 so I can assess the “Woerner Brothers” in 2021.

TE4: Daniel Helm

CEILING: Making the team.

FLOOR: Not playing any offensive snaps.

PREDICTION: Sorry Daniel. I didn’t see it in college, I do not see it professionally. Especially not in 2020. Enjoy San Francisco, but as far as fantasy players go, Helm’s Deep down the list of TEs I would draft. Get it? San Francisco almost became the Lords of the Rings in 2019, Daniel Helm can only hope to acquire the one ring in 2020.

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