In my previous article, I took a look at five picks from the 150-199 slots in the draft. Now we’re going to continue even further down, looking at picks 200-249. At this point in the draft, you’ve probably gotten your starters set. Failing that, you’re preparing to reach for that one guy you’ve been banking on taking to fill that last important slot. Now we’re moving into the depth and fliers section of most drafts for leagues with 12 teams or less. This is where you’re going to find your draft winning late picks.

When I reach this point, I’m looking almost purely for upside. I’m paying less attention to last year’s counting stats. I look at smaller samples, in many cases, from guys who were injured or had limited playing time. I’m looking for things that give me hope that this year might be their year to establish themselves.

There are no wart-free players at this point. Everyone carries a level of risk. Sometimes that’s age or injury history. Other times it’s the lack of a real track record. Due to the lower draft slot, however, I’m willing to take that risk, because I’m not losing anything if they don’t work out. The vast majority of guys you take here aren’t cornerstones of your team. At this stage, a higher level of risk is acceptable.

ADP 200-209: Andrew Heaney

If Andrew Heaney’s elbow holds up all season, he could return stellar value. While last year was marred by injuries and somewhat unimpressive numbers, there’s a lot of potential here. He gave up a lot of hard contact last year. (47.6%) However, most of his stats were right in line with league averages. Heaney wasn’t a disaster; he simply wasn’t dominant. It’s worth noting that his swinging strike % was 14.2, vs a league average of 11.2 Batters made contact with his pitches 70.8% of the time. League average was 76.2%

What that tells me is that he has pure stuff, and that the stuff didn’t desert him last year. He consistently carries a K/9 of higher than 9. He’s going to get strikeouts by the boatload when he’s healthy. The knock on him would be that he is a fly ball pitcher. When he gets hit hard, there’s a danger that he’ll pay dearly for it. If you’re right, he will pay dividends all year. If you’re wrong, you’ve risked very little.

ADP 210-219: Justin Upton

It’s hard not to wonder if perhaps Justin Upton’s injury-marred 2019 was a sign of his decline starting. And in fact, ESPN has noted that it’s worth keeping an eye on in 2020. Prior to 2019, though, Upton was a model of durability and consistency. It’s worth betting on that same consistency to get him at a deep discount this year. 30+ homers and a combined 180-200 Runs and RBI this late in the draft is a tantalizing prospect, even if he gets a few extra days off this year to rest his knee.

He’ll get his share of strikeouts, but in a loaded lineup, he’s a potent weapon. Many of your league-mates have already written him off. Don’t make the same mistake they did. Bet on him coming back strong.

ADP 220-229: Emilio Pagan

There’s no denying that Pagan’s value took a hit with his trade to San Diego. He’s blocked by Kirby Yates, who was dominant in the closer’s role last year. Nearly every closer is just a bad week or two away from losing his position, however, and Pagan is exactly the guy who could seize that opportunity and really pay dividends.

As a setup man, he maintains any value in leagues that score SV+H. He’s also guaranteed to get a vulture save here or there. But his real value could explode after the All-Star break, as Yates is due to be a free agent at the end of the season. It’s entirely probable that the Padres would be looking to trade him if they’re out of contention. It’s even possible that they trade him while they’re in contention, assuming Pagan puts up anything close to his 2019 numbers.

Whether they do or not, the reality is that he’s exactly the bullpen guy you want. He won’t hurt your ratios even on days that he’s not actively getting you any counting stats. Plus, if things fall your way (due to luck, trade, or unfortunate injury), you’re going to look like a genius. Get this man NOW, because he’s a perfect handcuff.

ADP 230-239: Carson Kelly

Make no mistake, the catcher position continues to be a veritable wasteland of talent. If you’re not willing to pay up for the position, you can afford to wait quite awhile to make your pick. Generally speaking, I’m not willing to pay the high price for a Realmuto or Gary Sanchez. However, I’m not going to punt the position, either. Instead, I’m going to target Carson Kelly in the late stages of the draft.

He has no competition. Barring something bordering on the miraculous, Stephen Vogt is going to give absolutely zero competition for Kelly’s starting gig. He’ll give you a palatable .750-.800 OPS floor. The power is probably going to take a hit if the ball is back to being normal, so count on closer to 15 homers than 25. Particularly since he plays in a pitcher’s park, none of his counting stats are going to be gaudy. He won’t hurt you, though, and he makes consistently hard contact. That’s a recipe for success anywhere, even in the desert. If his power doesn’t fade, he’s going nowhere nearly this low next year. Mark my words: Carson Kelly is a draft winning late pick.

ADP 140-149: A.J. Puk

While there’s been a lot of hype around Luzardo and Montas, Puk is just as poised to break out this year as anyone. He had three positively rated pitches last year (per Fangraphs). He also features a changeup that if he masters would make him a bonafide four pitch starter. His K/9 rate in the minors was dazzling. It literally never dropped below 11 K/9. That K rate was on full display in his small sample of 2019. There’s no reason to think it will fade any time soon.

I’m rarely all-in on rookies, because they rarely justify their draft day hype. But Puk at this price? I want as many shares of him as possible. Add in the ballpark he’ll make roughly half of his starts in, and I’m somehow more hyped. Obviously there’s questions of just how many innings the A’s will let him throw. At the beginning of the season, though, there’s no concerns whatsoever. By the end of this season, NOBODY will be overlooking Puk.

And that does it for another article. I’d love to hear your thoughts on my picks, or the guys you like more. Let me know in the comments below.

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Hungry for more baseball related content? Check out our own Dan Damico’s preview of the often-hapless Baltimore Orioles.