Friday, May 17, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Five Players to Sell High

There are numerous players that fit the distinction of a sell-high. And its almost too easy to put the guys who finished first at their position at the top of the list. So instead I decided to grab a couple guys who brokeout last year or had some major change in their opportunities this offseason. These are guys that are stirring up the fantasy football world and that means its the opportune moment to sell.

Deebo Samuel

Deebo had the season of a lifetime with 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 15 total TDs ( six receiving, eight rushing, and one passing). Samuel was the swiss army knife the 49ers needed last year, and he came through in a big way. Why are you saying to sell him then? Well, it’s simply because those numbers are not sustainable. This was essentially a ceiling year, and with new QB Trey Lance inevitably coming in, this offense will need to use Deebo downfield more, not to say the screen game will be gone, just that it won’t be as necessary a QB who can stretch the field. Also, another aspect to look into is Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Both will look to get more involved in a vertical-based offense and take away targets from Deebo.

In start-up leagues last year, you cashed in on getting Deebo in rounds 7-10, and now you have the opportunity to do that again. Whether he is a 49er in 2022 or gets traded, his value will likely not hit this plateau. Another thing to consider is his injury history which dates back to college. Injuries to his hamstring and foot have held him out of 18 games in his first three years. Each time he historically came back “out of shape,” which led to the “manufactured touches.” His style is hard-hitting, which will most likely lead to an injury of two unless you are Derrick Henry. If I have Deebo, I’m trying to sell him for a tier-down receiver and a first in 2022 or 2023.

Tyreek Hill

The new savior of the south beach is coming in with a lot of hype, and it’s warranted. The Cheetah is a cheat code that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid helped unleash on the NFL. Now Hill is away from the Chiefs; we don’t know what will happen to his value. Coach Mike McDaniel told Cameron Wolfe of the NFL Media, “there’s no real ceiling on in terms of the ways that you can involve him”. McDaniel will try and replicate the success he had with Deebo in San Francisco. The problem is that “the Deebo” style of football is hard on the body and causes injuries. Another thing to question is how good Tua Tagovailoa will be in 2022. He averaged 6.9 yards per competition and 28 deep ball attempts. Both were bottom of the league and warrant question marks considering they have one of the best deep threats in the game.

This move has hyped Hill’s stock up, and that means it’s the perfect time to offload him and get yourself a haul. This offseason might be the best time to get a return on Hill. Not to say he’ll be bad this year, but when you drafted him in prior years, he may not return that value on the field, but someone else might give you that value in a trade.

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler has been a personal favorite since his emergence in 2019. I was really happy to see him succeed in 2021 and my fantasy team loved it as well. Ekeler has 20 total TDs and over 1,500 scrimmage yards while adding 70 receptions. Some of Ekeler’s most impressive stats were his 63 red zone touches (#2 in the league), 31 percent dominator rating (#4 among RBs), and his 940 yards created (#3 among RBs). Overall Ekeler was a force this season with additions to the offensive line and Justin Herbert‘s progression in year two.

So why did he make this list? It’s the fact that the Chargers still seem like they want another goal-line back. Accounting for 52.5 percent of the Chargers rushes inside the five sounds good, but it was 16th last year. This stands out considering who is behind him on the depth chart. Ekeler proved that he can be effective in the red zone last year but there’s still a possibility the Chargers go out and get a bruiser to take away goal-line opportunities. Even without another RB, his injury history and incredible jump in TD numbers make him someone unlikely to sustain the top 5 performance.

Elijah Mitchell

Elijah Mitchell is a sell-high this year due to a productive 10-game season in one of the best schemes for running backs in the league. If he played 17 games last season he would’ve run the rock 307 times for 1,488 yards and 8 TDs. Mitchell’s outlook fantasy-wise would’ve been RB4 with 235 fantasy points. Considering he’s a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, that was a league-winning steal. Mitchell definitely has potential and still has room to grow in this offense as a goal-line back.

There have been six different rushing leaders for the 49ers in the past six years. That tells you all you need to know about this prestigious position. Last year Mitchell was a steal in both the NFL and Fantasy Football drafts. He posted 1,100 scrimmage yards and 6 total TDs, he was very much the 2021 version of James Robinson. Going forward there are a lot of red flags, he’s a 200 LB back who gets 80.8 percent of the 49ers’ running back opportunities. He never left the f, which led to many early injuries, including knee, head, shoulder, and rib/chest. This in the past has led to the 49er’s RBs becoming expendable. This draft is going to be important because San Fran may take another sixth-round talent to add to their depth chart.

Overall Mitchell is a talent, but his status in SF is seemingly one bad injury away from being replaced. And with the fantasy community throwing him into their top 10 RBs this year. I can’t help myself from wanting to sell Mitchell for a high price. Especially considering the return you could get for a young “top 10” RB. That is why Mitchell is such a sell-high for me, he’s talented but no one should be drafting a Shanahan RB as a Dynasty top 10 RB.

Travis Kelce

He wasn’t TE1 last season but still finished TE2. Kelce has had seven straight seasons with 100 targets, and six straight seasons with 1,000 yards. He is a beast and while Kelce is getting older his opportunities have never been higher. This is because Tyreek Hill was traded this off-season, so Kelce should be getting targeted more than ever. Pat Mahomes’ go-to guy could easily be a top-5 TE for the next three years.

So why am I selling him? Easy, with these new targets opening up and the team replenishing the roster with JUJU Smith Schuster. I feel like Kelce could actually get his shorter routes eaten into and it may actually backfire on Kelce owners. He may end up being sent downfield more, which is good when he can bring the 80-yard TD in, but if he can’t and doesn’t have 10 underneath targets to work with then we have a dilemma.

So a selling point is Hill’s target share is up for grabs and the consistency of the past six years. Try and sell him for haul, he’s still very much worth it but one wonders if he can live up to the hype of this upcoming season.

Final Thoughts

Its essential in fantasy football to recognize players that could be coming off an unsustainable year. Then trying to optimize their value and trade them for picks, players or a combo. I hope the sell high players in this article help give you insight on things to look for when analyzing players to sell. I hope you enjoyed the article and come back to see more content at Bellyupfantasy.com. And if you want more of my content you can find me on Twitter @Semtexmex93.