Monday, May 20, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Rookie QBs & RBs: The Dynasty Down-Low

Malik Willis, Breece Hall, Matt Corral, Isaiah Spiller in the background of a graphic design talking about rookie fantasy value

Fantasy rookie QBs and RBs are arguably the two most exciting positions to draft. With the 2022 NFL Draft wrapping up about a month ago, we are beginning to get into the “hype up” portion of the fantasy football offseason. All rookies drafted in 2022 are being touted as the best thing since sliced bread and are being compared to other NFL stars and recent rookies such as Ja’Marr Chase and Jonathan Taylor. Here, I will point out my favorite players with great rookie value, go over my 2022 statistical predictions for them, and touch on their dynasty worth.

The Down-Low on Rookie QBs

Matt Corral, #9| Carolina Panthers QB

Kenny Pickett

Despite his below-average hand size, Kenny Pickett is going to be taking the reigns of a highly regarded franchise in the Pittsburgh Steelers, as he stays in his college hometown. While I am predicting that it will be an exciting training camp QB competition between Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky, I do not believe that he is going to be a first-year starter. Once Pickett gets the starting nod, he will have a surrounding offense that is filled with a lot of nice talent, with Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris headlining it. If Pickett wants to take the next step, he needs to decrease turnovers and become more comfortable in the pocket.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 31.8 FPTS | Starts: Two | Games Appeared: Six

Dynasty Analysis: QB19-QB23 range with medium bust potential.

Malik Willis

With an unexpected landing spot, Malik Willis looks to prove his doubters wrong with his speed and cannon for an arm. Though the Tennessee Titans recently traded star A.J. Brown, they scooped up Treylon Burks in the First Round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Willis will most certainly be learning from Ryan Tannehill for 2022 and likely a year or two more as well. Do not worry though, fans will eventually get to see Willis’ high-flying upside take the field. Before this happens, Willis needs to work on his tendency to stare down receivers and adjust better to various types and speeds of defenses.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 22.3 FPTS | Starts: One | Games Appeared: Three

Dynasty Analysis: QB16-QB20 range with medium-high bust potential.

Matt Corral

With a fantastic landing spot, marvelous rookie value, and a cakewalk to get the starting nod, Matt Corral is looking to be the early odds on favorite to be the best rookie QB in 2022. Sam Darnold is back to seeing ghosts and Cam Newton‘s future with the Carolina Panthers is still up in the air. Corral could also be the saving grace for the WR core. Fresh faces on Carolina’s offense are the perfect recipe for Corral to be a dynasty gem. Corral could be impacted negatively by his height, he still needs to work on some of his throwing mechanics, and he needs to fine-tune his footwork.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 229.9 FPTS | Starts: 16 | Games Appeared: 16

Dynasty Analysis: QB15-QB19 with low-medium bust potential.

The Down-Low on Rookie RBs

Breece Hall, #35 | New York Jets Rookie RB

Breece Hall

Though a mediocre landing spot as of now, Breece Hall‘s talent will not be contained. And before you ask, no, Michael Carter is not still going to be the lead back. QB Zach Wilson likes to check down to the RB and often attempted to get the run game going regardless of what the scoreboard looked like. This means that the fantasy points should come fairly easy for Hall. If Hall wants to be elite, he needs to continue working on his pass blocking and find his sixth gear on long runs downfield.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 194.2 FPTS | Starts: 15 | Games Appeared: 15

Dynasty Analysis: RB10-RB14 with low-medium bust potential.

James Cook

Could James Cook have asked for a better landing spot? He now joins a top-five offense in the NFL and only has to compete with a hit or miss Devin Singletary. I watched a lot of film on Cook, probably because it was so fascinating to see which NFL RBs he compared to and what his primary role could potentially be: true workhorse RB, pass catcher, or a combination of the two? I see a lot of his brother, Dalvin Cook, in his game and this is an exciting tidbit for fantasy. He still needs to work on rushing up the gut and getting in between tackles as well as keeping balance after first contact before being a fantasy powerhouse.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 145.5 FPTS | Starts: Six | Games Appeared: 15

Dynasty Analysis: RB13-RB17 with low-medium bust potential.

Kenneth Walker III

With Chris Carson‘s future up in the air and Rashaad Penny already dealing with an early hamstring issue, Kenneth Walker III is looking to have a significant and early impact. This RB piqued my interest as soon as I saw him take one of his first Michigan State rush attempts 75 yards for a house call. Walker III still needs significant work on pass blocking and is already improving his receiving work.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 165.0 FPTS | Starts: Ten | Games Appeared: 16

Dynasty Analysis: RB13-RB17 with low-medium bust potential.

Dameon Pierce

Dameon Pierce, an RB with virtually no competition and decent draft value, could be the steal of rookie drafts and redraft leagues everywhere. It is likely that the Houston Texans will start the season with an RB committee, hence why Pierce is only slated to start eight games, but I do think he will take over the backfield and have himself a nice season. At the moment, Pierce lacks some speed and is not as explosive as some would have liked.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 128.6 FPTS | Starts: Eight | Games Appeared: 13

Dynasty Analysis: RB32-RB36 with low bust potential.

Tyler Allgeier

One of the biggest sleepers in the 2022 draft class is BYU’s own Tyler Allgeier. While I still expect Cordarrelle Patterson to lead the backfield and hold fantasy value, I eventually see him moving out wide to have a more prolific WR role. This leaves very minimal competition for Allgeier and increases his overall value.

2022 Fantasy Stat Predictions: 116.1 FPTS | Starts: Two | Games Appeared: 14

Dynasty Analysis: RB43-RB47 with medium bust potential.

If you have not yet completed your rookie drafts, I would highly suggest bookmarking this article and following along with updates on rookie value from teams’ respective beat reporters. Also, practice makes perfect. Take place in as many rookie mock drafts as possible, to really get an understanding of the value for the players that you love.

A reminder for you: more great NFL and fantasy football coverage can be found on the Belly Up website, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network & Belly Up TV. Make sure to check back in with Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and injury analysis to ensure you are a championship-winning fantasy manager. Got a question or have something to say? Leave a comment below and follow me on Twitter @TFFPhilip and Instagram @thrillsfantasyfootball.