Monday, May 06, 2024

Fantasy Baseball

Seattle Mariners Stocks

Kyle Lewis rounding the bases

In this article, I took a look at a few interesting stocks on the Seattle Mariners. Dive in with me to see who I am buying and selling in the most exciting team in sports. Okay, the most exciting team in Seattle. Okay, the most exciting team in Seattle baseball.

Kyle Lewis

Let’s start with the obvious. Kyle Lewis is putting up some impressive numbers. Anyone with a .375/.423/.583 slash is making owners who drafted him or grabbed him off the wire early ecstatic. The power is real, but it’s obvious to even the staunchest Lewis believers that his numbers are unsustainable.

There are many people trying to sell high on him, most evidenced by the offer I received of Kyle Lewis for Alex Bregman. Chill. Lewis does appear to be standing a little taller at the plate this year, which has no doubt helped. However, his launch angle has dropped to almost zero, and he will always strike out at Gallo levels without Gallo production. Expect his BABIP of .577 to normalize in a hurry, which could make for some ugly weeks in the not-so-distant future. While I wish I had Lewis from the start, I’m not buying him now. Sell high in dynasty and redraft.

J.P. Crawford

Crawford is an interesting player and one I’m targeting especially in OBP leagues. His slash of .286/.423/.405 is steady and sustainable production. He’s a 25-year-old who looks to have tapped into his potential. He’ll never hit for a ton of power (expect around 3 home runs in 2020), but he’s a good hitter who knows how to take a walk without striking out too much. I’d be surprised if he finishes the season with more walks than strikeouts, so look for that to normalize, but an OBP between .380-.400 isn’t improbable. Crawford is leading off in an improved Mariners lineup, and despite his only slightly above average speed, Crawford can swipe a few bags. If you don’t have him in your lineups now, you might have run out of time, as his stock has risen considerably. If you have him, keep him, and buy in dynasty.

Kyle Seager

Seager has had good seasons before, but he’s never displayed much batting average. What’s intriguing me about Seager so much this year is his approach at the plate. He looks like a reversed Eric Hosmer, though he hasn’t totally flattened out his launch angle. There’s still enough lift there to keep the ball in the air. With that said, he’s hitting ground balls half the time. His xWOBA is sitting at the highest its ever been in his career, while his walks are up and he’s not striking out nearly as much. He’s not having the same trouble reading the changeup as he had in the past, and he’s still having success on fastballs. It looks like Seager made a concerted effort to put the ball in play, and early on it’s paying dividends. Buy in redraft.

Other Mariners Notes

Shed Long: Lots of swings and misses, but he’s trying to hit the ball in the air. I believe in Long’s bat against righties and lefties, but I need to see less whiff in his game while he works on his new approach. I’m targeting in deeper dynasty leagues.

Justus Sheffield: A victim of prospect fatigue, Sheffield still has good stuff. I don’t think he was ever going to be what he was hyped to be in a Yankees system that was lackluster at the time, but he still has more upside than he’s shown in his young career. In 2020, it looks like he’s abandoned his four-seamer in lieu of his sinker, which doesn’t inspire confidence with his continued control struggles. I’m not targeting, but I wouldn’t sell either. In shallow leagues, he shouldn’t be rostered.

Evan White: I’ve never been high on White, especially since he’s a first baseman with average power at best. His hit tool is supposed to be his best attribute at the plate, but his overall best attribute is still his glove. He’s always going to be a better real-life player than a fantasy player.

Thanks for the support! While you’re here, check out the great fantasy content at Belly Up Fantasy Sports and follow me on Twitter @saint_patricio for more insight on which players to target.