Thursday, May 09, 2024

Betting, Gambling

Sunday Sevens: NFL Regular Season Finale

We have reached the final week of the NFL season. This season has been unlike any other and we are near the end of a Covid-19 stricken year that has affected all aspects of life with the NFL being no exception. With the playoffs around the corner, the season finale leaves more consequential games than usual. Playoff spots are on the line and a lot can happen. To make the games more watchable, you can place some bets on these games with the hopes of hitting a few. Here is my Sunday Sevens for the final week of the season.

Favorite: Packers (-5.5) Versus Bears

Rodgers to Adams has been unstoppable this season. It’s hard seeing the Bears finding an answer in Week 17.

Both teams have different motivations for winning this game. The Packers are hoping to secure the top seed in the NFC and the only bye week. The Bears are just hoping they can get into the playoffs with a win. If you have watched the Packers in recent weeks, you know that they are one of the best teams in the NFL and have little to no roster flaws. The Bears have been clicking on offense but have been beating some of the worst defenses the NFL has to offer. The Packers are going to have to find answers at Left Tackle but they should be able to win and cover the spread with a touchdown victory.

Underdog: Falcons (+7) Versus Buccaneers

It was hard to convince myself to pick the Falcons in this game. Atlanta has been awful this season and the defense has been especially dreadful. However, there are two things to consider when betting on this game. The first thing to keep in mind is that Tampa has nothing to play for. They are a lock to be the fifth seed in the NFC. The Falcons can lose this game for a better draft position but they have been competitive in a surplus of their games this season. The Falcons might not win this game but they should be able to cover the spread and keep the game close.

Over: Jets Versus Patriots (39.5)

Rarely will we see a total that dips below 40 points. The oddsmakers are anticipating strong defense and two non-existent offenses. However, we should keep in mind that the last time these two played each other, we saw a surprisingly high-scoring game. It’s also important to keep in mind that the Jets offense, which is the worst in the NFL, has looked better in the last two games. Both Sam Darnold and Cam Newton might not be on their respective teams next season, but they will both be auditioning for other teams in this final game. Expect the Over to cover with both offenses doing just enough in this game.

Under: Lions Versus Vikings (54)

Both defenses are awful and the offenses have been great this season. The Vikings allowed 50 points last week to the Saints and the indication is they will do the same this week. The Vikings’ defense has looked bad this week but they are playing the Detroit Lions, not the Saints. Furthermore, the Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook, arguably their best player on offense. With the high total and both offenses leaving question marks, you should bet the Under in this game.

Money Line: Dolphins Versus Bills

The Dolphins have to win to make the playoffs. The Bills might be playing for the second seed in the AFC, but with the Steelers resting their starters, there might not be such an urge to win this game. The Bills are the better team but Miami is going to play this game like a playoff game (for them frankly, it is). The Dolphins’ defense might give Josh Allen a tough game considering they turned over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs four times. The offense has its question marks, but if the Dolphins can establish the run game, they will keep the game close and might win it. The Dolphins are a value bet here considering the playoff implications.

Alternate Spread: Washington (-6.5) Versus Eagles

Did you know Logan Thomas played quarterback in college? I’m sure that fact about Logan Thomas has not been mentioned and it needs more publicity. Sep 27, 2020; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Washington Football Team tight end Logan Thomas (82) reaches for the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Browns won 34-20. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t feel convincing to bet on this game when this is the “NFC Least”. If the Football Team wins, they will make it to the playoffs while the Eagles are already eliminated. Washington might not have a quarterback, but they have enough talent to win this game and win easily. The Cowboys appeared to figure out the formula to stopping Jalen Hurts and Washington has the defense to keep the Eagles offense stagnant throughout the game. Expect this game to potentially be a blowout victory to clinch a playoff spot for the Football Team.

3-Leg Parlay: Titans + Seahawks and Chiefs Versus Chargers (Over 43.5) for +220

This parlay is assuming that there is no world in which the Titans and the Seahawks lose. The Titans have a playoff spot on the line and are playing a broken Texans roster. The Seahawks can potentially grab the top seed if all goes right. The big bet here is the Over on the Chiefs versus Chargers. The total is a low one at 43.5 and rightfully so. The Chiefs are playing their backups and aren’t expected to pile on the points. The Chargers however are an Over bettors dream with great offense and terrible defense. Expect the low total to cover and thus the parlay to hit.

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